Reference — 320 kW cluster DC franchise
Franchise model · Scenario: Base · 3/8/2026 · engine v2.2.0
Below your required return, and capital recovery depends entirely on an UNSECURED month-60 buyback — renegotiate terms and demand security before proceeding.
Indicative result — material assumptions remain unverified (0/4 diligence items confirmed). Complete the verification checklist in step 5 before circulating this case.
Decision detailoperational, investment and bankability sub-verdicts behind the headline
- CAUTIONInvestment verdict: Renegotiate — below your 12% required return (NPV -₹3.13 L, IRR 9.12%). Ask for a higher guarantee, lower entry price, or stronger terminal terms.
- OKOperational verdict: Underlying station is profitable over the term (₹63.86 L operating cash).
- ACTION NEEDEDKey dependency: Capital recovery depends ENTIRELY on the month-60 buyback (36% of total cash). Do not sign without security for it (escrow, bank guarantee, or deposit).
- OKFranchisor capacity: Station cash funds everything promised to the investor 1.20x over.
Reconciliation passing means the arithmetic is consistent — it does not mean the investment is attractive. Judge those under their own headings.
Input validity
- ⚠Indicative result — material assumptions remain unverified (0/4 diligence items confirmed in the verification checklist).
Investor attractiveness
- ⚠NPV at the 12% required return is NEGATIVE (-₹3.13 L) — this deal is below your own hurdle rate. Renegotiate terms or lower the hurdle deliberately.
- ⚠Annualized IRR (9.12%) is below the required return of 12%.
- ⚠Monthly income alone never recovers the investment — payback (month 60) depends ENTIRELY on the terminal buyback being honoured.
Bankability & counterparty
- ⚠Unsecured counterparty promise valued at 100% recovery: ₹19.00 L (36% of total cash) rests on the franchisor honouring the terminal payment with no security and no default risk assumed. Enter a default probability and/or security backing to see the credit-adjusted view.
Monthly cash — franchisee
Cumulative investor cash & payback
Includes the terminal payment in the final month.
Scenario comparison — net investor profit
Each bar is a full model re-run under that scenario's drivers.
Sensitivity (tornado) — IRR impact of ±20% driver moves
In guaranteed structures, demand sensitivity is small until units cross the threshold — buyback recovery usually dominates.