Tools › EV Traffic Estimator

How many EV cars pass this route in a day?

A deterministic estimator that turns FASTag toll-plaza counts and Parivahan pure-EV registrations into pure-EV cars/day at a highway point — then into charging sessions, kWh/day and a break-even comparison. Every factor is shown with its range and its provenance, so you can disagree with any coefficient and see what it does to the answer.

Pure EV only. The EV registration data behind this tool was extracted with EV Type = PURE EV — battery-electric vehicles only. Hybrids are excluded throughout, because a hybrid never needs a public charging session. A second pull with EV Type = ALL (25 Aug 2026, all 1,676 RTOs, zero gaps) supplies each RTO's total fleet, so EV shares are computed from the registry rather than assumed. Source: VAHAN/Parivahan Analytics, 1,676 RTOs, pure-EV as on ….

1 · Site & corridor

Paste a Google Maps link — or type coordinates ("lat, lon")

Latitude Longitude Site / route label Highway (NH number) Base year

Dropping a pin fills everything: the location label (OpenStreetMap Nominatim), the nearest toll plazas from the NHAI plaza index with an auto-estimated car count, suggested catchment RTOs for the district and state, and then runs the estimate. Every auto-filled value stays editable — replace the plaza count with the latest IHMCL monthly figure whenever you have it, and the estimate tightens.

2 · Toll-plaza observations (FASTag)

Auto-filled from the pin. Plaza locations come from the NHAI Toll Information System index, and for 481 of 701 plazas the monthly car/jeep count is the actual published IHMCL FASTag figure for July 2026 — real data, not an estimate. Plazas the IHMCL report doesn't name-match fall back to the median of the measured car counts on the same highway (then state, then national), marked assumed. If your site sits between two plazas, keep both — the estimator carries both counters and refuses to pick one.

Monthly car-count series for these plazas (IHMCL, Jan 2025 – Jul 2026)

Gaps in early 2025 mean the plaza was absent from that month's report (Feb–May 2025 reports are partial), not zero traffic. Year-on-year growth is computed same-plaza, same-month; part of it is rising FASTag penetration rather than road traffic, which is why the projection caps growth at 7%/yr regardless of the observed figure.

Plaza name	Month	Days	Car transactions / month	Offset km	From published IHMCL report?

3 · Catchment — where the traffic's cars are registered

Pick the RTOs whose registered vehicles plausibly drive through your point, and weight them by how much of the flow each origin market contributes (weights are normalised automatically). The pure-EV car count and the total all-fuel fleet both fill in from Parivahan pulls (pure-EV as on 10 Aug, total fleet as on 25 Aug 2026), so the EV share of fleet is computed, not assumed — it carries open-data provenance and lifts the result from Class D to Class C accuracy. Edit a share only when you mean to override the registry (the row is then honestly downgraded to assumed).

Search 1,676 RTOs (name, state or code)

RTO	Pure-EV cars (LMV)	Weight	EV share of fleet %

4 · Recent EV purchase trend (optional, recommended)

Cumulative fleet share buries today's EV boom under years of ICE purchases; recent purchase share overstates what is already on the road. The truth for highway flow sits between the two. Enter pure-EV car and total car registrations for your catchment's RTOs over the last 3 and 6 months (the VAHAN dashboard publishes month-wise counts) and the tool computes the purchase share, its momentum, and the adoption-curve steepness it implies.

Pure-EV cars — last 3 months All cars — last 3 months Pure-EV cars — last 6 months All cars — last 6 months

5 · Assumptions (defaults shown — every one editable)

Flow correction (plaza → site)

Exempt / non-FASTag uplift Month seasonality index Plaza → site transfer

EV share of flow

Highway exposure factor (flow ÷ stock share) Exposure at horizon

The exposure factor's direction is genuinely contested: range anxiety argues EVs avoid highways (below 1); the per-km running-cost advantage argues the EV is chosen for long runs (above 1). Default is neutral 1.0 — set it deliberately, per corridor.

Growth projection

Observed plaza growth %/yr (optional) Screening cap %/yr EV share ceiling % Logistic steepness Horizon (years)

Capture — passing EV to charging session

P(arrives needing charge) P(stops | needs charge) Capture vs competitors kWh per session

6 · Economics & break-even (optional — leave capex blank to skip)

Capex ₹ lakh Tariff ₹/kWh Variable cost ₹/kWh Opex treatment Fixed opex ₹/month (if separate) Discount rate % Asset life (years)

Results

Information only — this result is a floor on a partial picture (transit cars only) and is not a verdict on any site.

Projection

Year	Cars/day	EV share of flow	Pure-EV cars/day (band)	Sessions/day (band)	kWh/day	vs break-even

Traffic growth is capped for screening (FASTag-derived growth rates conflate real traffic growth with rising FASTag compliance). EV share follows a logistic adoption curve, never a compounding percentage.

Break-even derivation

Every factor applied — value, range, provenance

Factor	Value	Range	Provenance	Rationale

Flags raised by the estimator

What this model deliberately leaves out

Every effect below is absent from the estimate, and each one marked "understates" pushes the real number up. This register is why the result is information, not a verdict.

Derivation trace

Stage	Rule	Detail

Method & sources

Five deterministic stages — the same engine that runs inside GeoSite Engineer, compiled for this page. Identical inputs always return identical output; there is no AI in the calculation.

Base flow — plaza car transactions ÷ days, corrected for exempt/non-FASTag passages, month seasonality and plaza-to-site transfer. Two bracketing plazas form an interval, never a chosen point; if they disagree by more than 25% after correction, the tool flags it.
EV share — catchment-weighted pure-EV share of registered stock × a highway exposure factor whose contested direction is disclosed rather than assumed away.
Projection — traffic growth capped at a screening rate; EV adoption as a logistic S-curve anchored to today's share.
Sessions & energy — P(needs charge) × P(stops) × capture share × kWh/session.
Break-even — annualised capex (capital recovery factor) + fixed opex, divided by the contribution margin; compared on kWh/day, the segment-neutral basis. Both opex treatments are always computed and shown.

Data: … The all-fuel denominator (78.6M LMVs nationally) comes from a second Parivahan pull with a blank EV-type filter on 25 Aug 2026 — same 1,676-RTO grid, same archive scope, zero unresolved offices — so each catchment RTO's EV share of fleet is pure-EV LMV ÷ total LMV, reproducible from source. Toll-plaza locations come from the NHAI Toll Information System (701 plazas, snapshot Mar 2022 via the toll-plazas-india archive), joined by name to the IHMCL ETC monthly plaza reports, Jan 2025 – Jul 2026 — so 481 plazas auto-fill with the published car/jeep FASTag transaction count itself (provenance: open data) and carry a 19-month series from which the tool measures each plaza's own year-on-year growth (same plaza, same month — median +15.7% across 468 plazas, part of which is rising FASTag penetration, hence the 7%/yr screening cap) and month-seasonality index. Unmatched plazas fall back to the same-highway / state / national median of the measured counts, marked assumed. Base years beyond July 2026 scale at the capped rate. Uncertainty bands combine independent factors in quadrature; the band is never narrower than the spread between your two plaza counters. Desk estimates are Class D (±60%) by construction — the route to a tighter number is a site count, not a bigger assumption.